US
US Labor Market
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 42
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
Unemployment in the US is undergoing a permanent, long-term structural shift due to Artificial Intelligence.
"But it seems that now it's a structural shift. So structural means it is a kind of like a permanent ..."
Dec 27, 2025
Pending
Federal Reserve policy is expected to stabilize the labor market, with the unemployment rate either stabilizing or increasing by only 0.1-0.2%, avoiding a sharper downturn.
"policy... will enable the labor market to stabilize or to only tick up one or two more tenths but we..."
Dec 10, 2025
Pending
Leading economic indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening.
"While initial jobless claims remain low, these leading indicators suggest the US labor market is wea..."
Nov 29, 2025
Pending
Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could lose their jobs if President Trump's aim to convert furloughs into permanent layoffs during the shutdown is realized.
"President Trump has said that he's aiming to make any furlows permanent layoffs, meaning hundreds of..."
Sep 29, 2025
Pending
The US labor market could experience a rapid decline if current weakening trends accelerate.
"If this labor market keeps weakening, we could see a cliff drop rather than a gradual decline we've ..."
Sep 12, 2025
Pending
If immigration is reduced, US job growth could fall to 60,000 per month over the next six months, which is below healthy levels.
"If migrant flows get curtailed, potential job growth could drop to 60,000 per month over the next 6 ..."
Sep 12, 2025
Incorrect
Layoffs in the US labor market are predicted to pick up in 2026.
"layoffs still have not really picked up. They probably will in 2026"
Sep 6, 2025
Pending
The US labor market is not expected to create 100,000-200,000 jobs due to a declining labor force.
"you cannot expect when you're seeing a declining labor force that you're going to get 100,000 200,00..."
Aug 25, 2025
Pending
Initial claims predicted to rise into summer 2025.
"even at the beginning of the year, we said they'll likely move up into the summertime because they d..."
Jul 3, 2025
Pending
The unemployment rate is expected to rise in summer 2025, potentially causing the stock market to stall in August-September 2025.
"I'm thinking you'll see something similar this time. That could cause the stock market to stall out ..."
Jun 19, 2025
Pending
If initial unemployment claims exceed 300,000, it could imply a lower low for the stock market in Q3 2025.
"If initial claims go over 300K, then it might imply a lower low in Q3."
Jun 19, 2025
Pending
If initial unemployment claims remain below 300,000, the stock market is more likely to trend higher.
"If initial claims stay below 300,000, then it's more likely the stock market will just trend higher"
Jun 19, 2025
Pending
The US unemployment rate is predicted to increase during summer 2025.
"labor market probably you're going to see the unemployment rate go up because it did the last two su..."
May 21, 2025
Pending
Initial US jobless claims are expected to rise seasonally in April/May 2025 and spike during the summer months of June/July 2025.
"What you'll notice is that in the last two years, there was a spike by initial claims in the summer ..."
Apr 17, 2025
Pending
Mark Zandi (Moody's chief economist) predicts tariffs will lead to a significant loss of American jobs and a spike in unemployment.
"According to Mark Xandandy, chief economist of Moody's, this is going to cost a lot of American jobs..."
Apr 11, 2025
Pending
The pace of job creation is predicted to worsen significantly over the summer of 2025.
"it's likely to get much worse over the summer"
Mar 24, 2025
Pending
The April 4th, 2025, non-farm payrolls report is expected to be the first to show the impact of government layoffs on the labor market.
"the jobs report which is going to be the first to start showing the effect of government layoffs on ..."
Mar 24, 2025
Pending
The number of states where the unemployment rate has gone up over the last three months is likely to increase one more time in the October 2024 report.
"there's a good chance we'll see it at least go up one more time when we get the the the report for u..."
Nov 2, 2024
Pending
The Q4 2024 surge in the number of states with initial claims normalized by population is predicted to be higher than the Q4 2023 surge.
"there's probably going to be a surge here going into Q4 2024 and I think the important thing is will..."
Nov 2, 2024
Pending
US economy added only 12,000 jobs in the previous month, falling short of the 100,000 expected.
"the United States economy added just 12,000 jobs last month, which is a whole lot less than the 100,..."
Nov 2, 2024
Pending
Initial jobless claims in the US are likely to rise to approximately 300,000 by the end of the current economic cycle.
"really in order to get into real recession territory you need to see initial claims closer to 300K a..."
Sep 7, 2024
Pending
The number of US states experiencing a rising unemployment rate (compared to six months prior) will reach a higher high by the end of 2024.
"Is this just a series of higher highs and higher lows where it's going into a potential another high..."
Sep 7, 2024
Pending
The number of US states with a rising unemployment rate (compared to six months prior) is predicted to reach a new high by the end of 2024.
"is this just a series of higher highs and higher lows where it's going into a potential another high..."
Sep 7, 2024
Pending
The US labor market is deteriorating, potentially leading to a cycle of job losses, decreased consumer spending, and reduced business revenue.
"the labor Market's clearly no longer normalizing further deterioration could set off a negative cycl..."
Aug 6, 2024
Pending
The current behavior of the US unemployment rate is predicted to follow similar long-term patterns observed in previous business cycles, eventually entering a non-linear or parabolic phase.
"to some degree I I don't really think that this time is different"
Aug 3, 2024
Pending
The year-over-year percentage change of the Household Survey employment data is predicted to turn negative in August or September 2024 if employment does not increase significantly.
"in fact it might go negative next month because if you go if you go back a year ago in July you can ..."
Aug 3, 2024
Pending
The 'unemployed plus discouraged workers' indicator is predicted to continue its upward trend after building a base.
"unemployed plus discouraged workers I mean again a lot of these it looks like it's really building o..."
Aug 3, 2024
Pending
The US unemployment rate is predicted to reach 5%.
"that's how the unemployment rate before you know it it's at 5%"
Aug 3, 2024
Pending
Following the Som Rule trigger, the unemployment rate is expected to continue increasing.
"normally when the unemployment rate starts to move up and triggers this the unemployment rate contin..."
Aug 3, 2024
Pending
Within the next couple of years, non-farm payrolls are predicted to be revised to a negative number (e.g., +100k to -50k), signaling a significant shift in the job market.
"one at one point in the next couple of years you are going to watch the nonf Farms get revised to a ..."
Jul 8, 2024
Pending
The number of states experiencing a rising unemployment rate is predicted to increase again, given the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy (no rate cuts, no QE).
"because the FED hasn't lower rates we haven't gone back to QE, we're going to see the labor market c..."
Jul 5, 2024
Pending
Predicted that the US labor market will show a weak data point within the next two months (by July 2024).
"there's a good chance it's going to show a weak data point in the next two months"
May 12, 2024
Pending
The unemployment rate will hit 4% or over 4.2% in May 2024, causing the Fed to implement looser monetary policy, which will lead to the ETH/BTC bottom.
"if it were to jump 310 from April this April to May i' put it at 4.2% right you can see how it could..."
May 7, 2024
Pending
Enhanced unemployment benefits created an incentive for people to leave their jobs, as they could earn more by staying home than by working.
"the dumbest thing they did was if you lost your job you got like triple two to three times what you ..."
Apr 23, 2024
Pending
The US employment level, as indicated by the household survey, is predicted to be in the process of declining, mirroring patterns seen in prior economic cycles after yield curve inversion.
"it certainly looks like this current cycle is now in the process of rolling over right it looks like..."
Mar 10, 2024
Pending
The US unemployment rate, currently at 3.9% and having crossed its 24-month simple moving average, is predicted to continue to move higher, consistent with most historical cycles.
"historically once it crosses that 24mon SMA while it might hesitate a little bit it tends to keep on..."
Mar 10, 2024
Pending
The US labor market is predicted to soften over time.
"I I I just think it's a matter of time you know before you actually see softening in the labor marke..."
Mar 7, 2024
Pending
The US labor market is predicted to soften over time due to current interest rates.
"I I I just think it's a matter of time you know before you actually see softening in the labor marke..."
Mar 7, 2024
Pending
The US labor market will soften over time as current interest rates continue to take effect.
"the rates are having the desired effect I I I just think it's a matter of time you know before you a..."
Mar 7, 2024
Pending
Job openings are predicted to continue declining until monetary policy becomes looser.
"if this [job openings] were to continue to come down which I think there's a good case to be made th..."
Feb 22, 2024
Pending
If the Federal Reserve does not pivot its monetary policy soon, companies will eventually have to implement widespread layoffs.
"eventually If the Fed doesn't pivot you know soon then they have to start going over to to layoffs"
Feb 19, 2024
Pending
If the unemployment rate hits 4%, it is predicted to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action.
"I I think if it were to hit 4% that would that would probably raise a lot of eyebrows and that could..."
Jan 15, 2024
Pending
Over the next 6 months (from January 2024), if the Fed does not cut aggressively, there is a good chance that the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker will drop below 1.
"over the next 6 months if the FED does not cut aggressively there's a good chance that this metric c..."
Jan 1, 2024
Pending